Ticket Sales Forecasting
Performing Arts
The Challenge
The Client is an internationally acclaimed symphony orchestra with over a 100-year history. They approached Management Science Associates, Inc. (MSA) seeking a reliable solution for estimating future ticket sales, especially subscription-based sales, to help better manage their internal budgeting process and program management. They had many years’ worth of historical data of concerts performed with which they wanted to see if MSA could leverage to compute relatively accurate ticket sales forecasts.
What Did MSA Do
MSA took much of the available historical data and developed a series of custom, algorithmic and regression-based models to calculate ticket sales forecasts for each upcoming performance, both subscriber-based and single ticket sales.
We then embedded all of the models into Excel® and developed an interactive, user-friendly, scenario-building tool with which the Client was then able to input various upcoming concert details. The tool visualizes sales forecast results as table summaries as well as in interactive charts. The tool also tracks model performance over time to determine if any model adjustments are necessary.
The Results
- The symphony orchestra has used MSA’s ticket sales forecasting solution successfully for over five years.
- Annual sales predictions have consistently fallen within a ±2–4% range of actual historical sales.
- Scenario-based forecasts have given the client clearer insight into programming decisions.
- This improved clarity has led to significant budget savings over time.
For more information on this MSA solution, please contact Kevin Mason (kmason@msa.com), Vice President.
